Enzo Yaksic a and Michael Aamodt b
a Serial Homicide Expertise and Information
Sharing Collaborative. Boston, MA
b Department of Psychology, Radford
University. Radford, VA
According to Beasley (2004), the study of serial murder
should be objective, standardized and include as many subjects as possible. Although
researchers have been collecting serial homicide data for decades, it was done
disparately. Hinch and Hepburn (1998) categorize past attempts as “dealing with
narrowly defined acts and the most sensational cases.” Lack of reliable data
has contributed to the slowing of research on serial crime (Petee and Jarvis, 2000) and
is identified as a key obstacle for the future (Dowden, 2005). Leyton (1996) and Skrapec (2001) have
advised scholars to abandon egos, academic ‘turf wars’, and self-serving
agendas in search of a greater understanding of the phenomenon. In an update on
the ‘Evolution of Serial Murder as a Social Phenomenon in American Society’,
Hickey (2014) acutely summarizes the
plight endured by those delving into this work, acknowledging that “being a
researcher in this area has required getting past misinformation and
sensationalism, finding others who share similar research interests, and
dredging up reliable data.”
Overcoming these barriers is an ongoing endeavor, undertaken
by the efforts of those involved in the Serial Homicide Expertise and
Information Sharing Collaborative (SHEISC), a network of one-hundred academic
and law enforcement professionals with the goal of coming to a greater
understanding of the serial murderer (Boyne, 2014). In 2015, after a
combined total of thirty-seven years amassing data on serial homicide
offenders, Michael Aamodt and Enzo Yaksic began recruiting scientists to analyze
the output in unique ways. Relationships were built with Clare Allely, author
of Neurodevelopmental and Psychosocial
Risk Factors in Serial Killers and Mass Murderers (2014), Ronald Hinch, author of Researching Serial
Murder: Methodological and Definitional Problems (1998), authors Mikhail Simkin and Vwani
Roychowdhury of Stochastic Modeling of a Serial
Killer (2014), Marissa Harrison, author of Female Serial Killers in the US: Means,
Motives, and Makings and Virginia Beard, author of Death-Related Crime: Applying Bryant's Conceptual Paradigm of
Thanatological Crime to Serial Homicide. To encourage further empirical studies,
Aamodt and Yaksic provided an opportunity to bolster future work in this arena and
increase sample sizes by supplying each with the entire Radford/FGCU-SHEISC
Serial Killer Database (Aamodt, 2014).
In the past, serial homicide databases were sparsely
populated as academicians collecting information made it available only to their
own research team (Ramsland, 2010). To protect self-interests, most operated in
‘information silos’, hoarding data and secreting source material. Procurement
of these files now comes at exorbitant financial cost (Canter, 2011; Godwin,
2012) as records were often kept in paper format (Egger, 2014; Geberth, 2010)
or within now defunct or corrupted computer systems (Waters, 2013). As a
result, some materials no longer exist (Leyton, 2013). Byproducts of these
actions led to the creation of different definitions, the use of assorted
sources, the surveillance of non-comparative variables and the inability to
validate information.
The variance of emphasis on the nuances of serial murder has
led to the use of multiple definitions (Morton and McNamara, 2005) as criminologists have historically
been restrictive in their interpretations of what constitutes a serial murderer
(Ostrosky-Solis et al.,
2008). Wright et al. (2009) state that much of the scholarly research
has been hindered by the definition of each type of killer, differing on
requirements such as the number of murders, the types of motivations and the
temporal aspect (Morton and
Hilts, 2008). Starting from a more inclusive definition may hold
advantages, according to Osborne and Salfati (2015), but, by excluding certain
types of killers, analysts have reduced the pool of research subjects (Cluff et al., 1997). The Radford/FGCU-SHEISC
Serial Killer Database (Aamodt, 2014) employs the broad two victim
definition provided by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) as it
encompasses the full array of serial murderers by not referencing underlying
motivation, behavior or psychological characteristics (Brantley and Kosky, 2005;
Hargrove, 2010). Radford data include financial, professional contract,
revenge, gang, organized crime, robbery/homicide and witness elimination
offenders among the more ‘traditional’ serial sexual murderers. Research
efforts have been damaged in recent years due to a hyperfocus on the serial
sexual killer as the terms sexual homicide and serial murder have become
synonymous (Petee and
Jarvis, 2000).
Criminologists protest the inclusion of gang and
professional murderers in serial offender databases since they occur alongside
functional (Ferguson et al., 2003) violence and have rational motives (Jenkins,
2002). This viewpoint reinforces that offenders must utilize violence
unconventionally to qualify as a serial murderer. Many, including the killers
themselves (Valencia et al., 2013), believe that self-motivated serial
murderers do not belong juxtaposed to ‘hitmen’ since they are paid to kill and
do not choose their own targets (Hickey, 2013). Conversely, these murderers
display the intent to kill anyone, at any time (Vronsky, 2013) and are
seemingly gratified by appeasing their greed. Lester and White (2014), as well
as agents of the FBI (Morton and
McNamara, 2005), acknowledged that organized crime, contract and
drug/gang killings are serial murders that can be motivated by revenge, loyalty
or profit.
Evident is the risk of diluting a sample and compromising
the integrity of data by conflating various types of multiple murderers
together (Giannangelo, 2013). However, excluding killers that cross between
subcategories hinders the advancement of serial homicide research (Clemente,
2013). Hickey (2015) notes that broad definitions may not be meaningful, but
excluding financial motives and those who kill acquaintances is based on
speculation rather than on any empirical foundation. Aamodt and Yaksic’s application
of the Modified Delphi Technique (Custer et al., 1999) on an instituted panel
of experts demonstrate a wide range of opinions on the topic (Aamodt and
Yaksic, 2015a). Although these disagreements highlight the difficulty of
maintaining collaborative relationships, the group posited that the broad
categorical term “Multiple Event Murderer” could be used as a means to study
the multitude of subsets of offenders either together or separately, defined
henceforth as: Any person(s) that cause(s) the death of another
through illegal means more than once in at least two locations.
The benefit of cataloging multiple murderers using one
overarching classification scheme is that it allows individual researchers to
adapt as needed and avoid the shortfalls of the existing definitions (Adjorlolo
and Chan, 2014). Rather than engaging in the process of retrofitting offenders
into categories to suit specific study parameters, whole subsets of offenders
can be included or excluded from analysis, depending on the author’s
pre-defined criteria. The detriment of this approach arises when psychologically
dissimilar populations are compared between studies (Aamodt and Yaksic, 2015a).
Researchers must be cognizant that serial murderers cannot be fit into one
single behavioral profile (Hickey, 2015) and, based upon the uniqueness and
variances of human behavior, be aware of the limitations in typing the serial
murderer (Morton and McNamara, 2005).
Fox, Levin (2011) and Yaksic’s meticulous tracking of adjudicated
serial murder series over several decades revealed that the phenomenon is in
decline (Beam, 2011). Yaksic’s (2013a) reasoning behind the decrease was
initially met with trepidation but several of the proposed theses have since
been accepted (Fox and Levin, 2014; Hickey, 2015) as probable explanations for
the downward trend. It is presumed that advances in technology have made it
easier for law enforcement to consider that a serial murderer may be operating
in their area (Kaste, 2015). Jurisdictional conflicts have subsided in favor of
increased collaboration with the FBI and surrounding departments while the
public is consulted for assistance (Backus, 2015a) more frequently. Cell
phones, always connected social media accounts and the dawn of the surveillance
age add other measures of risk to an offender’s decision to victimize others.
The Internet provides would-be offenders the opportunity to placate themselves
without exploiting unwilling participants. Greater utilization of the
underground sex trade and the likelihood of offenders warehousing abductees contributes
to a decreased need to eliminate complaining witnesses with such regularity.
Efforts to educate the public about these offenders led to increased awareness
that odd behaviors, stalking offenses, paraphilias and violent tendencies
toward animals or others in youth are part of a larger group of warning signs.
A greater distrust of strangers led to the abolishment of hitchhiking and
parents reluctant to allow children to play freely without supervision (Aamodt
and Surrette, 2013), diminishing potential victim pools. Harsher punishments
and less use of parole ensures that would-be serial murderers are incarcerated
for longer. Serial murder is not viewed as the shortcut to celebrity status it
once was since news coverage of these events has lessened over the years. Many
would-be serial murderers are captured after their first murder due to
incompetence, before they have the opportunity to amass larger victim counts
(Aamodt and Yaksic, 2015b). Future generations may witness an even greater decrease
in victimization as long haul truckers are replaced by automated vehicles
(Davies, 2015). The decline in serial homicide calls into question the image of
the infallible, successful killer these offenders were once thought to be. Societies’
past ignorance of their means and motives allowed serial murderers freedoms
they can no longer enjoy. While the desire to become a serial murderer has not dissipated
among offenders (Aamodt and Yaksic, 2015b), these factors may have permanently
displaced some offenders, forced others into altering their modus operandi or
into early retirement.
Still others may have begun adopting tactics commonly
associated with the spree murderer (Aamodt and Yaksic, 2015b). Long after
Muhammad and Malvo (Koerner, 2002), the debate about how to typify spree
murderers continues due to those that carry out their crimes in ‘spree-like’
frequency but, as agents of the FBI have stated (Morton and Hilts, 2008), the
motives and tactics of a serial murderer (Earl, 2013). Researchers have been
reluctant to juxtapose these offenders or admit witnessing the convergence of
the spree and serial murderer in recent years. It is disputable that spree and
serial murderers should continue to be stratified separately since the ‘cooling off period’, used to make
distinctions between potentially similar serial offenders, is now characterized
as a historical artifact (Douglas et al., 2013). Osborn and Salfati (2015) concluded
that spree and serial homicide may not be distinguishable, including in their
data eight instances of one day time intervals and one series that lasted only
three days.
Nearly a decade ago, Salfati et al. (2006) concluded the
only study comparing serial and spree murderers, finding that spree offenders
were generally 29 years old, killed on average six victims with firearms, most
often in one day at anywhere from two to six locations. Seventy-three percent
of these perpetrators were killed before capture. Aamodt and Yaksic (2015b)
found that spree offenders in their data were also typically 29 years old, but killed
on average three victims with firearms most often over a one week period at
three locations. The majority of offenders in the Aamodt and Yaksic (2015b) inquiry
were arrested rather than being killed in police shootouts after embarking on a
suicide mission. Although spree offenders did share similarities with serial
murderers, it is not yet known which psychological traits are mutual or if patterns
in precipitating factors can be established. Aamodt and Yaksic (2015b) concur
with Salfati et al. (2006) that more data is needed to determine if spree and
serial murderers should continue to be stratified separately.
After incorporating spree murderers and instances of urban
violence into their serial homicide dataset, Hickey (2015) and Yaksic found
evidence of a change in victimization rates. Fewer cases of only female victims
are co-occurring with an increase in males being targeted. Fewer strangers and
more family members are killed with a slight drop in the number of prostitutes
being singled out. There are fewer numbers of victims per offender and fewer
cases involving more than one state. Fewer cases of strangulation are recorded
alongside more cases involving shooting as the sole method of killing.
Still, Homant and Kennedy (2014) stipulate that a serial
murderer’s subsequent killings should be part of a separate sequence of
behaviors. Those committed by spree murderers are said to be part of one
continuous event, often the byproduct of situational violence (Daniels, 2015).
Not only is the sequence distinction less useful if these offenders are viewed
as Multiple-Event Murderers (Aamodt and Yaksic, 2015a), but serial murderers
can and have been fueled by similar precipitating incidents.
Although Beasley (2004) noted feelings of restlessness and
impulsivity among serial murderers, they have been characterized as cold and
calculating methodical planners that commit unprovoked, patterned and predatory
sexual attacks on strangers. Spree killers are typed as temperamental,
impulsive and bombastic with initial murders being haphazard retaliatory
reactions directed at acquaintances (Salfati, 2006) whose subsequent murders
often help them obtain necessities (Daniels, 2015). Perhaps, however, there are
circumstances and environmental factors that may preclude multiple murderers
from acting in the manner that they would ideally choose. Some offenders are given the luxury
of time between offenses, not because of superior knowledge, talent or skill,
but due to variables beyond their control including the degree of witness
involvement, varying levels of police pressure and even luck. If a spree-type
offender eludes police, they may bide their time, reenter society, and possibly
continue killing again in the future, unabated. Similarly, serial murderers can
exhibit ‘run and gun’ behaviors by the end of their series (Smith, 2009;
Sparacello, 2011). By ignoring the stratification question, researchers
overlook the evolving nature of serial homicide and disregard how serial
murderers are molded by social conditions, cultural changes and external
pressures (Warf and Wardell, 2002).
Early qualitative research efforts were ambitiously
spearheaded by agents of the FBI who conferenced with twenty-five serial
murderers in the early 1980s in an attempt to understand the circumstances
behind their existence by immersing themselves in their life histories (Ressler
and Burgess, 1985; Beasley, 2004). Since then, researchers have instituted lore by either intentionally or
unwittingly overemphasizing anecdotes gathered from these interviews. Stereotypes
emerged over the past forty years, forming due to the scarcity of systematic
studies (Arndt et al.,
2004; Jenkins, 1994), the desire to monetize the concept and the tendency for
some to consciously invest in catering to those that actively embrace the more
gruesome aspects of serial murderers and their deeds (Yaksic, 2014a). As such, researchers
have spent the greater part of the last decade combating antiquated viewpoints
and dismantling myths from past eras (Fox and Levin, 1999; Sterbenz, 2015;
Yaksic, 2013b). Consequently,
there were very few comparative studies, virtually no biopsychosocial studies,
an absence of more sophisticated statistical analysis and a repetitive use of
small, nonrandom samples using retrospective data at the beginning of the
millennium (Meloy, 2000). Dowden (2005) suggests that researchers refocus their
efforts as inquiries made by those working outside the field of serial homicide
research are often the most potent.
Serial murder has been transformed into a profitable
construct, often exploited to satisfy our curiosity (McNamara and Morton, 2004;
Beasley 2004). Falsehoods are often promulgated by unqualified
individuals, self-ascribed forensic criminologists, due to the ease with which
information can now be generated and disseminated for financial incentives (Yaksic,
2014a). There are those that imprudently wield criminal profiling as a weapon in
a game of good versus evil where the good guys battle and triumph over the bad
guys (Mains, 2015a). This infantile worldview may produce good entertainment
(Mains, 2015b) but also inevitably induces a false sense of knowing these
offenders. As such, serial murderers have been portrayed as prolific evil
geniuses, inhuman psychopathic monsters and dysfunctional white male loners,
unusual in appearance and incapable of maintaining long term relationships.
They are called cunning predators that ceaselessly hunt dozens of strangers to
fulfill a desire for bloodlust. They supposedly possess the ability to not only
evade the police but expertly engage them through the media and frequent their
hangouts to learn about cases, all while yearning to be caught.
Leading research shows that serial murderers do not
consistently behave this way (Fox and Levin, 1999; Hickey, 2015). The current
authors have each separately imparted their findings on the issue of race and
the serial murderer. Yaksic (2006) contentiously stated that every other serial
killer since 1995 has been African American. Others (Hickey, 2015) have since
validated this proposal, finding that it has held true almost a decade after
being posited. Aamodt (2008) found that the commonly held demographic profile correctly
matches only eighteen percent of serial murderers. As Beasley (2004) notes, the
prevailing thought that serial murderers sadistically kill for sexual
gratification, engage in animal torture, are physically or sexually abused as
children, become more evidence conscious over time and allow media coverage to
alter their criminal intentions must be challenged. Results from Bateman and
Salfati (2007) indicate that serial murderers are not consistently performing
the same crime scene behaviors throughout their series. Coupled with the
findings of Schlesinger et al. (2010), these revelations test the notions that
serial murderers consistently take souvenirs or leave signatures, escalate in their
violence as they continue killing, improve their methods and change their
strategies over their careers. Violent acts performed on a body also
should not automatically signal the presence of a serial murderer.
Serial murder is thought to be an affliction that overtakes
an offender’s life but they are not hostages to this cycle; they can control
their desire to kill. Offenders are not always in prison, the military, at
college, or in a mental health facility during time intervals (Morton et al.,
2015) and rarely begin to unravel at the end of their series. Many have
criminal records that reflect histories mired in anti-social behavior but some
do display remorse (Yaksic, 2012) and can be affected by what they do (Levin
and Fox, 2008), sometimes coping with their actions by abusing substances.
Murders can be committed serially due to subtle factors such as the offender’s
perception that a victim lied, cheated, insulted, or hurried them (Quinet,
2011). Victims are often selected not as substitution for someone they know but
based on availability, vulnerability, and desirability (Morton et al., 2015). It
is also obsolete to classify serial murderers as either organized or
disorganized as this investigational dichotomy has not been used in practice
during much of the past decade (Morton et al., 2015).
Abiding by tropes can influence the course of serial
homicide investigations. A private investigator from Sarasota, Florida used
only the physical attributes of eighteen
potential victims to connect the
disappearances simply because they “look just like sisters”, drawing a
comparison to the archaic archetype of Ted Bundy (Gleiter, 2014). Although
firearms are the highest proportion of kill method in the Radford data (Aamodt,
2014), an investigator characterized a recently apprehended serial murderer’s
use of a firearm in each of four homicides as “rare” (Alexander, 2014). Most
still consider as fact the old adage that serial murderers desire a ‘hands-on’
kill and must strangle their victims to feel the life leave their bodies.
To avoid further pitfalls, Beasley (2004) recommends
supplementing interviews, like those conducted by Pino (2005) and Reavis
(2011), with information from large scale databases in order to obtain a more
informed view of the serial murderer. ‘Big Data’ provides many benefits to
almost all sectors of society (Davenport, TH., and Dyché, J., 2013; Venton,
2015) but has yet to be utilized to effect this microcosm of the criminal
justice system. While researchers have now officially convened in an effort to
attain this aim (Boyne, 2014), several limitations have
been encountered.
All facets of serial homicide research are fraught with
quantification issues due to the use of outmoded data collection methods. No
official mechanism exists for capturing instances of serial homicide as the FBI’s
Uniform Crime Report (UCR) and Supplementary Homicide Report (SHR) lack a
specific entry field. Researchers inclined to count the frequency of events and
make determinations about their instance in society cannot track serial
homicide easily as there is a great amount of disagreement as to what exactly
constitutes a serial murder series. Categorization efforts have been ongoing
since the inception of this phenomenon but researchers are no closer to
consensus (Ostrosky-Solis
et al., 2008) on classification today than they were forty years ago. Attempting
to include motive into the definition of serial murder results in some degree
of subjectivity (Ferguson et al., 2003) as it must be inferred from observable
behavior (Kraemer et al., 2004) and depends on history, context and
expectation; constructs that are not only impossible to quantify but unique to
each individual. The news media oftentimes does a poor job of accurately
labeling a serial offender based on motive, as evident in the recent trials of
Aaron Hernandez (Jones, 2014) and Dzhokhar Tsarnaev (Zalkind, 2014). Those regularly
deemed spree killers can also erroneously be given the serial killer
designation (Winton et al., 2014). For these reasons, the addition of serial
homicide offender records to databases can be an unnecessarily subjective
process.
The emotional ‘cooling off period’ is a confounding concept
that has been used to differentiate between multiple murderers. While experts
disagree on a standard ‘cooling off’ length, many continue to utilize this
temporal element as part of their exclusion criteria. Osborne and Salfati (2015)
note that there is a lack of research to develop an understanding of ‘cooling
off’ and that it should be discarded and re-conceptualized into time
intervals. Since these intervals could be less than one day, the continued use
of the temporal distinction has restricted the utility of the current serial
murder definition (Adjorlolo
and Chan, 2014). Although serial murderers may return to their usual way
of life in the time breaks between homicides, researchers have little
understanding of the behaviors that they partake in during these interruptions.
It is impossible to discern the degree to which serial murderers remain
entrenched in their killing lifestyle. While it may appear that they are
taking care of their children or going to the store, they may actually be
dedicating effort to planning future crimes, ruminating about past ones or
managing the impression made on others (Levin and Fox, 2008). An offender’s
dormant period is thought to be psychologically beneficial to them but implies
that they engage in violence as part of a stress-relief regimen to resolve a
buildup of internal conflict (Corzine, 2014). This viewpoint wrongfully
insinuates that serial murder is driven only by aggression and agitation and
that offenders work themselves into a frenzy, or ‘heat up’ before each kill (McClellan,
2014). This outlook, as well as the use of the word ‘emotional’ to describe
this period (Aamodt and Yaksic 2015b), conflicts with the perspective that serial murder is a predatory crime
whose offenders are well-controlled, cold and calculating (Myers, 2014).
Unlike in other fields of inquiry, attempts to collect
primary source information are hampered by extraneous factors. Researchers must
contend with limited access to subjects due to their incarceration, death or
refusal to participate in research studies. When access to subjects is granted,
offenders often alter their version of events to better suit their needs or
cannot accurately recall how events transpired. Although some serial murderers
are consumed by their killing lifestyle (Fox and Levin, 2011), most often lack
enough insight into themselves to provide useful and actionable information. Since
opportunities for interviews are sparse, statements given by murderers are
overblown, generalized and given more weight than they deserve. Building
rapport with a subject can be a time consuming process, often lasting months or
even years. Regardless, primary source interviews (Pino, 2005; Reavis, 2011) should
supplement the information culled from secondary sources so that offenders’
actions are not minimized after being reduced to mere data points in an Excel
worksheet. Sorting offenders by only demographic variables can lead to a loss
of narrative components and an overreliance on selected anecdata.
Available
data can also be rather difficult to aggregate and collate. Titlow
(2014) cataloged some of the hardships the current authors encountered during
the process of data transformation while merging each of the databases received
through the SHEISC initiative. Although a more real-time, ‘root cause analysis’
of offenders’ methods and motivations would greatly enhance law enforcement’s
response to these matters, gathering primary source information on each of the
3,949 serial homicide offenders listed in the Radford/FGCU-SHEISC Serial Killer
Database (Aamodt, 2014) would take more than a lifetime, even if they
were universally available. While potentially able to amass far larger victim
counts than their American counterparts, international killers are woefully
understudied due to substandard record keeping and unestablished judicial
systems in foreign countries as well as cultures that do not obsess about the
criminal mind.
Linking and attributing homicides to one killer can be a
challenging process, spanning many years and encompassing the efforts of
hundreds of individuals (LePard, 2015; Lohr, 2015). Taskforces are charged with
identifying the perpetrator after a large expanse of time since the initial
murder occurred (Backus, 2015b). The length of legal proceedings contributes to
the dearth of primary source research materials, such as an offender’s journal,
as these items are warehoused in evidence lockers and not revealed until a
trial (Zapotosky, 2015). As is the case with serial murder suspects Lonnie
Franklin (Gerber, 2015) and Felix Vail (Yaksic, 2014b), bringing offenders to
trial can take half a decade. Due to the threat of lawsuits from individuals
that are wrongly labeled with the ‘serial killer’ tag, researchers often wait
until their conviction to add them to datasets. This artificial lag greatly
diminishes an offender’s impact on the data because researchers customarily
generate statistical output based on the data that becomes available during the
new edition cycle of their academic textbooks. Excluded from analysis would be
those offenders discovered during the resolution of a cold case (Hoffer, 2015),
for example, since they occurred outside of the parameters of the author’s
timeframe. The drawback of such a stringent focus on cases surrounding the
textbook’s publication period is the inability to conduct any type of
systematic comparison of offenders from previous eras to these more recent
killers.
Complicating matters are those individuals that have no
involvement in a series of murders but claim responsibility for them and those
that boast about murders beyond the scope of their series. Each scenario makes
adjudicating these crimes difficult. Still, others refuse to accept
responsibility for the totality of the killings they did cause. Some
individuals listed in The Innocence Project (Scheck and Neufeld, 2015) and The
National Registry of Exonerations (2015) were released after the true
perpetrator was revealed to be a serial murderer (Coker, 2015). Over the years,
a few series were even determined to likely be nonexistent – the Smiley Face
killings of college aged men in the Midwest and Northeast (Drake et al., 2010),
the canal ‘Pusher’ case in Manchester, England (Slater,
2015) and the Phantom of Heilbronn, supposedly
operating in Austria, France and Germany from 1993 to 2009 ( ).
Due to Institutional Review Board restrictions and
confidentiality agreements (Salfati, 2011), the most detailed records of the crime, those of law
enforcement, usually are not available to researchers (Kraemer et al., 2004).
Also routinely out of reach is comprehensive documentation related to a case,
including investigative, autopsy, forensic and evidence analysis reports; crime
scene and autopsy photographs, diagrams, sketches, and maps; victimology
information; offender background; and any confessions or admissions by the
offender (Beasley, 2004). Even if available, these documents cannot account for
missed offenses that the offender committed that are unknown to police (Osborne
and Salfati, 2015). Information
gleaned from law enforcement sources is also processed through several layers
of individuals before it ends up as a data point in a database and is therefore
exposed to all the biases and distortions that accompany human interpretation
of facts. These records can
contain misinformation as investigators’ levels of experience with and
understanding of such offenses may vary widely (Morton and McNamara, 2005), leading
them to only record information fitting their
notions of what will be important for the investigation (Bateman and
Salfati, 2007). An unavoidable limitation of
all serial homicide datasets is that what is not known about victims cannot be
known (Quinet, 2011) as they are the primary, and
perhaps the sole, witness. Due to the outcome of the crime, he or she is no
longer able to provide the necessary evidence (Bateman and Salfati, 2007).
Because of these reasons, most researchers are forced to
collect information from secondary sources, such as true crime books and news media reports (Morton and McNamara, 2005).
Reliance on this approach is problematic because the veracity of claims made in
true crime books are often unverifiable and reports often contain varying
degrees of information pertinent to investigating this phenomenon (Morton and McNamara, 2005),
which oftentimes contributes to missing data (Bateman and Salfati, 2007). For example, universally
incorporating offenders that commit two homicides is arduous since news outlets
infrequently refer to these offenders as serial murderers. Instead, these
offenders are muddled with double-murderers (Hoffer, 2015), killers whose two
homicides occur in the same incident, at the same time. This oversight has led
to several records being overlooked during searches.
Estimating the true prevalence of serial homicide is complicated
by the complex nature of the data. Due to the serial murder entertainment
industry, superfluous content often overtakes search results during research,
leading to an oversampling of the most bizarre cases, at the expense of more
mundane and more common offenders (Beasley, 2004). Researchers do not factor
unsolved homicides into their analysis since these victims cannot be definitely
attributed to the actions of serial murderers. Also, as unapprehended serial
murderers are probably hidden within the nations numerous DNA backlogs (Nelson,
2010), some researchers deem it unethical to produce a number that would
adequately capture the serial murderer’s occurrence in society. It is also
impossible to know the identities of burgeoning serial murderers. Those that
maintain the intent to commit a subsequent offense after being apprehended for
their first homicide are not included in the data as no academic study has been
dedicated to this offender population. The instance of false positives, those
that express the desire to kill serially but are not responsible for any
homicides, is unknown.
An interdisciplinary team of researchers, journalists and
data scientists have been assembled in an effort to address the limitations
outlined in this report (Boyne, 2014). To overcome these barriers, we must
begin to adapt processes proven useful in other industries. Virtual
breakthrough series collaboratives (Zubkoff, 2014), encouraging the free
exchange of ideas and network building, inspired the creation of the SHEISC in
2010 which resulted in the capture of serial murder suspect Felix Vail (Yaksic,
2014b). IBM’s Watson supercomputer is primed for use in the criminal justice
system (Wyllie, 2011) but its potential impact on serial homicide research and
investigations is unknown at this time.
Digital information dashboards, data displays and electronic
surveillance tools are used in healthcare systems to track performance on key
indicators, allowing for ‘drill down’ capabilities to reveal information hidden
amongst lower level data (Chen et al., 2014). These displays would serve the
criminal justice system by subsuming data from various sources into one
location to provide a semi real-time overview of probable serial murder
activity while compiling data for scientists to analyze.
After completing work applying an algorithm on unsolved
homicide cases using the statistical technique of cluster analysis (Hargrove et
al., 2011), Thomas Hargrove founded the Murder Accountability Project (Hargrove,
2015) to ensure that police increase their reporting of homicide occurrences to
the FBI using the UCR and SHR mechanisms. Dallas Drake of the Center for
Homicide Research has begun work on the Wyoming Homicide Database Project (Drake,
2015), a pilot to test the feasibility of obtaining information on solved
homicides directly from law enforcement institutions. Data scientist Peter
Brendt is at work applying natural language processing techniques to large
swaths of data in an effort to generate a type of ‘weather map’ detailing
probable serial murder activity among listings of unidentified bodies and
missing persons (Brendt, 2015). Aamodt and Yaksic continue to populate the Radford/FGCU-SHEISC
Serial Killer Database (Aamodt, 2014) with new cases. Relationships
should be fostered with local law enforcement crime analysts and statewide
fusion centers under a joint understanding that utilizing data to address this
longstanding criminal justice issue is of critical importance. Linking these
efforts together under one umbrella may have distinct advantages, as yet both unexplored
and unexploited.
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